The Fish

Aye that throws the cat among the pigeons and no mistake. Not least because Watford and Burnley lost games that, on paper, looked like decent opportunities to pick up at least a point. However, Burnley are capable of grinding out at least a draw from their final 8 games. I think Everton will lose their next 4. If they're still within a couple of points of eachother come the final 3 games, I think it'll be Burnley that survive. I think the away fans will be begging Dubravka to throw one in the net if a Burnley win means Everton go down. Not to get too conspiratorial, but it makes sense for every midtable side to want Everton to go down. With the right manager that club could be comfortably ensconced in the middle of the league. With them out of the picture for a season at least it means an easier season for Southampton, Villa et al.

The problem with all projections, as you undoubtedly know, is that it can only use past performance and 'best guess' as a guide for what is to come. It doesn't necessarily take into account the yearly phenomenon of the form of teams with nowt to play for, suddenly becoming unpredictable. Or the performance uptick we've seen so often in Burnley towards the end of the season. All that is saying is that if things stay largely the same, the have a 1 in 3 chance of going down. But I think things won't stay largely the same. I thnk Burnley will claw their way out of it. Or, more accurately, I think Frank will steer Everton back into it.

He was on a Match of the Day Top 10 thingy and said he was nursing an injury, went off for surgery/treatment after the match. He admits he was god awful and had we been winning he'd have gone off sooner.

Aye, that reminds me of that stat Sky and BT use which makes no sense. "It's been 83 years since Brentford last won a league game at Stamford Bridge" Well, they last played a league game there in 1947 so what question does that stat answer?

I was in the East Stand for this one. Even the miserable old coots in there were tumbling over eachother and ending up three rows down.

The issue with that comes with when the shot is taken. Defender's leading foot and attackers trailing foot are slightly overlapping, therefore no daylight. I think Gemmil is right, outside the box, the lines have to be thick and drawn from feet. Inside the box, it's any body part you can legally score from.

I keep going back to their 6inarow shit. Didn't we win something like 5 in a row, and it barely registered? Because, it wasn't a season defining achievement. For them it makes up for everything else going on at their club. Finished 17th? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Got relegated? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Got relegated again? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Choked at the play offs? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Lowest finish in the club's history? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. Newcastle been taken over to become the richest club on the planet? doesn't matter we beat the Mags 6 in a row. It's fucking weird.

It should be, whatever his Royal Highness decides.

Honestly think unless there's significant changes to the law the VAR lines should be measured from legs/feet. The essence of the law is to prevent attackers having an unfair advantage over the defenders, right? I don't see how the current iteration of VAR and the offside law answers that issue.

ARS 0 AST 0 BRE 3 BRI 3 BUR 0 CHE 3 CRY 0 EVE 3 LEE 3 LEI 3 LIV 1 MCI 1 MUN 0 NEW 3 NOR 3 SOU 0 TOT 3 WAT 0 WHU 0 WOL 0 I'm not too disheartened with that, especially as I haven't been maintaining the spreadsheet throughout the season. As such I've not been able to include recent form. Still, I need to correct the weighting as there are some fixtures where one team was projected to win and the other was projected to draw, and that shouldn't happen. England Football Results Betting Odds | Premiership Results & Betting Odds (football-data.co.uk) is handy for this kind of thing.

It’s not a prediction thing, it’s a projection thing. Given what’s happened, what’s more likely to happen. Can’t account for Man Utd deciding to fuck off playing football for the day. Next season I need to find a better weighting system. Everton beating Man Utd was against all form, bookies were agreeing with me, so shut it CT

So, I didn't have much on today and made something a bit(a lot) rough and ready; These are the fixtures for each team from 30 onwards. I looked at teach teams home and away form, while taking into account their overall quality (e.g. Leicester are very good at home, but not great on the road, but they're still a midtable outfit.). I gave a value to each and weighted it. So, the higher the number, the easier the fixture. What's the difference between the two sides? From that I created a rough and ready formula to predict the most likely outcome with a little randomness thrown in because... football. Gives this as a final table. Fwiw, I think it's underestimating a lot of teams, but fuck it, it's rough and ready

It'll be tight. Wolves are good on the road, and have a good defence. We are not great at unlocking good defences, but we're improving our form at home.

Done

My Mrs grew up in posh Yorkshire, whole family voted Tory for pretty much their entire lives. Rescued her from the dark side, rescued one of the sisters... the other one is tricky because she's got a cunt of a Kiwi boyfriend who is a big fan of Trump and anything 'contrarian'.

Agree with all of that. Also think there should be recourse for the many lies told by the Out campaign. No at the ballot box, but in the courts.

Standing with your back to the lift door isn't illegal, eating a banana from the middle out isn't illegal, closing the door on someone rather than hold it open isn't illegal, wetting your bed because you think Newcastle will be relegated this season isn't illegal. There are loads of fucking wrong things that aren't illegal.

Are there any people on here who voted for Brexit who still back it, or who have subsequently changed their minds?

I've had exes like that.

I know you didn't Wykiki just laid that honour upon you. (there's no real aggression, I love you all equally. Except you CT. You're in the doghouse until you generate some BDE)

Oh Craig posted it did he? Wonder where Craig found it? Probably on a website Craig made, on the Internet that Craig created, right? Get off his dick, man, he's not the messiah.

I think this bit gets overlooked If we were all to maintain our Points per Game, Newcastle would end up on 40pts, Everton survive on 33, etc. For Everton to surpass 40pts they'd have to get 15pts from the next 9 games. That's 5 wins man! 15pts from 9 games is 1.7PpG, the kind of form that would grant you 5th position in a league season! But sure, this side that has 7 wins all season is going to somehow dig out Champions League form against... CHAMPIONS LEAGUE LEVEL OPPOSITION!

Here's some expert opinion on the relegation chances; 538 They think we have a 6% chance of going down. Six percent. Bookies Longest odds has us at around 3.8%, shortest about 5.6% Team Right We say there's fuck all chance of us going down. So there you go, 3 different groups with expertise all saying you need to go find your big boy pants.

That Andy Dawson oddity has taken exception to Trippier's tweet as well. He does say that he had tickets, but because he's a 'recognisable mackem', he was worried that something shitty would happen among the 'whipped up Geordie fever" and he couldn't be arsed. Setting aside the FUCKING IRREFUTABLE FACT that bot all people would recognise him even if he walked around wearing a sandwich board declaring "I'm Andy Dawson, I do a podcast with Bob Mortimer" in bright fucking neon paint. Why, if this 'Whipped up Geordie Fever' was ever to be a concern, would he buy tickets to watch a singer who is ferociously proud of being a Geordie, at his home town gig?

'Not as positive as we hoped' implies that despite a set back it is still positive. 'Worse than expected' implies the already negative outlook has deteriorated further. Clarity of language is important. e.g. "You're not as clever as I hoped" vs "You're dumb as fuck". See how subtle differences in language can change the meaning?