The Fish

It's not about the likelihood of that chance occurring. It's simply given all the factors I mentioned above, how often does that situation result in a goal. Schar's shot is a good example. The chance of a player scoring from there is 1/100. that's averaged out over thousands of shots from thousands of players. A player has more chance of scoring that chance with his dominant foot, right? More chance if he's under no pressure, right? More chance if the 'keeper decided to go walkabout to the opposite corner flag, and so on. the xG records, not the predicted goals, but the expected goals. So someone takes that shot, it's 1 in 100 that it goes in. Because, say, 100 players took that type of shot across the historical data of 10,000 instances just like that, and 1 went in. You'd expect that when Schar strides forward against Brighton and finds himself in the exact same situation, you'd expect him to miss 99 times 100. People traversed the globe without GPS, flight, or even a combustion engine. Doesn't mean those things are superfluous. It's not the be all and end all, but it's a very useful tool. That's why I said scouting in person adds intangibles that stats alone can't. How does the player react to going behind, or missing a chance. How does he interact with the officials, his teammates, the opposition. You can never replace the value of an experienced eye, but these metrics aren't solely useful for assessing a teenage Bulgarian plying his trade in the Dutch second division. They're also really useful for working out the way to get the most out of the players you've got. Of course you need humans to apply subjectivity, and interpret the data. Do it wrong (over-exaggerating the value of POMO) and you get Allardyce. Do it right and you get the high quality, high energy, fluid football of Man City and Liverpool.

ASM executed more shot creating actions than Almiron, but Almiron produced more key passes, the chances made by Almiron were higher quality, but ASM had a higher chance of scoring himself. It's close but, statistically speaking, ASM was a slightly bigger overall threat than Almiron. If Almiron had used his right foot, he would have surpassed ASM.

xG is objectively assessing the likelihood of a goal given thousands of data points across years of research. How often does a player score, with that body part, from that position, at that angle, after receiving the ball in that way from that place, when the defenders are there and the 'keeper is there. It doesn't account for who that player is, or who his teammates, or a subjective assessment of the difficulty of the chance. Wilson's goal was a 0.09 xG. So, if a player was in that position you'd only expect him to score 9/100. Not necessarily Wilson, or Haaland, or Botman or Dubravka, any player in that situation had a 9% chance of scoring. They're not, it's not do I think that's a good chance, it's how many times did that situation result in a goal. There's so many intangibles added by a scout watching a player that you cannot find in statistics, that's why more onus was put on personality, character, bravery, etc. But the margins are now so small, that statistics add objective value to a scouts subjective view. You will never see the likes of Ali Dia again. Or a Nacho Gonzalez. Looks mint on youtube, might look mint in the 2-3 games the scouts turns up for. But if his underlying numbers are bad, they're a better judge of the player's actual ability. Your eyes lie to you all the time.

Some luddite is doubting xG again.

But are they better than their replacements?

See?! See what I mean?! Relying on what people say they saw is fucking dumb bumpkin bullshit. Stat me baby

See, I don't trust people, people voted for Brexit, people are in favor of the death penalty. I trust numbers. People will say they saw Wilson score from a good chance, 7/10 you'd expect to score from there. But actually it was a really, really difficult chance, closer to a 1/100 chance of scoring. People will say they don't see ASM providing enough output in terms of goals or assists, but the stats show he's the biggest threat in our side. People allow their bias to colour their interpretation of the game. What is they say about eye-witnesses being the least trusted testimony?

... You think Botman, Burn, Guimaraes, Targett, and Trippier were not scouted? Jesus H. Christ.

Honestly, I think a lot of the names we're being linked with make a lot of sense. First we need to agree what we need. The game against Forest showed me that the idea is to press like a pack of dogs, find balls through the lines for a wide player to cut back. We created loads of opportunities for Almiron to do that, but it didn't really create a high percentage chance. So for me, it's a threat from wide right. To fit into Howe's team they have to have some degree of defensive effort. To fit into the project they have to show some degree of potential. We're limited to players not expecting an huge wage or European football. Bamba Dieng ("22" c£15-20m) looks good for the above, but he is very raw. He might want a move to a team playing in Europe. Viktor Tsygankov(24 £25m+) from Kyiv could also be excellent- Left footed right sided attacker, good delivery from set pieces, presses well, the only issue is if we're trying to build from short intricate passes. He may also need to be incentivised to move to a non-Champions League team. Maddison would not only be a huge improvement on what we've got, but would be the 'marquee' signing that would make other teams/players/agents take a bit more notice. However, I don't think Maddison will go for a palatable fee.

Big money in the ginger cyborg micro-penis kink, is there? Who knew?

Well, I think I'm safe as I've opted for a smooth bonce.

See also "considering making an offer"

So you call it St James?? Like Saynt Jayms Snt Jaymzuz for me

This misplaced anger is ok PL, I know it's not me you're upset with. It's change. When all the markers you've used to navigate this confusing modern world change or disappear, you must feel lost. Progress is hard for some people, I guess.

It also mentioned sumif as if that's knowledge only Prometheus could gift.

Read this earlier, it's not wrong. Defining players by position is Low-T beta cuck behaviour.

Well I don't know about you, but I totally believe that happened exactly as described.

Shocker

What ever I say, but with a continental flair.

She's also got an invisible plane because comics.

So you're saying we're going to rescue De Jong from Barcelona?

It was Superstition by Stevie Wonder

Not really a striker, more a wide forward. Only had 12 90mins. Really raw, but bags of potential. Him+ Paqueta would be improvements on Almiron and Willock/Longstaff. Or different options at the very least.

I don't believe anything these days. Nothing. My son said he liked the song we had on in the car this morning, but there was something in his voice that made me think "This kid is a fucking liar"

Echo what everyone else is saying Renton, you should be really proud of your honesty. Honesty to strangers on the internet, with family and professionals, but especially with yourself. You see there's a problem, you see the steps you need to take to address it and you see it's within your power to do it. That's very brave and that shouldn't be dismissed or downplayed. It's not the same, but I'm open about my depression and anxiety issues, if nothing else it means people don't make light of those issues around me. I guess if people know about your alcoholism they're less likely to pressure you into having one, or make light of the subject around you? It's also better understood now, and there's less of a stigma around it because of that understanding. It might seem odd, but I think your tone has changed on here since telling us, I might be wrong but I now see hope in the words you put on the screen. I see someone who sees a way out of the hole and is going to reach for it. There's a reason everyone on here is offering support and whatnot, you're a good bloke who's been through the fucking ringer and you've earned a bit of help.