The Fish

Hey, it's one of those rare occasions where I've actually got work to do. (beginning of the month and I have to update some of the triggers on my automated scripts ) xG for Miggy was decent in his first 2 seasons, around 0.2 per 90, or a goal every 5 games. This season's small sample size has him doubling his xG, but you'd expect him to revert to the mean. At the minute, given the quality of chances he's had, he's scored 2 more goals than you'd expect. He's 4th in the league for outperforming expectations. Haaland, Maddison and Trossard ahead of him, however each of them have consistently out performed their xG, Miggy hasn't. So you'd expect him to fall back to his average a bit. This is a purple patch, not a sign that he's going to improve. End of the day, the eye test is great and all, but it's subjective. I've stood in the ground while people bitch and moan and call Saint Maximin worse than shit, when in fact he's fucking run the show. Heard people rave about Jacob Murphy, when the lads did nowt. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Not just chances that end up in a goal, but yeah, lots of criteria, including but not limited to; distance from goal, angle, body part, how the chance comes about (cross/pass/dribble/rebound), where the goal keeper is, where the defenders are and so on. Collect all of those data points from 1,000s of chances in 1,000s of matches in various competitions. It ignores subjective opinions of ability because keeping things level means that a player that consistently outperforms his xG has his superiority reflected in his goals vs expected goals, and someone who consistently underperforms the xG has his inferiority reflected.

It's thinking like this that saw Middlesbrough sign Aphonso Alves and Newcastle fans call Joelinton lazy. Enjoy the darkness, or join us in the light.

Stats can also reject a narrative. e.g. 'Joelinton is lazy'. His stats proved otherwise. I guess in that instance they're supporting an alternative narrative. They're more objective than the eye test though. Like, people are saying Everton have a good defence because they're not conceding a lot of goals. But stats show that they're giving up a good number of good chances, only Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth are doing worse in that (high xGA). Pickford's post shot xG is high, that means he's saving more shots than you'd expect a 'keeper to save. Only Bournemouth are allowing more attempted crosses, and only Man Utd's 'keeper is claiming fewer than Pickford. Everton have allowed the most shots in the league (214), and the 5th highest Shots on target (Fulham Forest and Bournemouth allow more). The average distance from goal that a shot is taken is 16yds. Excluding Penalties, they are 9 goals better off than you'd expect them to concede, we're behind them in second place with 2.7 fewer goals than expected. Only 3 teams press less than they do as well. So, stats show that they're not fundamentally not good defensively, and are hugely reliant on their goal keeper. He gets injured or loses form/confidence and you'd expect them to start shipping goals.

Well, obviously you don't just look at one season, but in essence, yeah a season's worth of performance metrics is a decent indication. You'd have to watch every game of the player to apply the eye test rigorously and teams won't commit to that, they'll watch them for 3 or 4 matches. In those matches they'll be focussed more on the intangibles; how did he react to missing a chance, how did he behave when the team went behind, did he listen to instructions from the sidelines, how did he take being subbed off. The talent pool these days is huge and there's no way you can send scouts around the globe to watch a 17yr old Brazilian play 3 games then make a recommendation off the back of that. The risks are too large. Better to use the data resources to narrow the field, then send a scout to watch the shortlist. The stats and eye test will have influenced the intensive and specialised training he undertook to improve his game. They'll use specialises sensors in training to guide changes to his stance, his gait, his kicking motion to get the optimal return from his play.

You can use data to see when a player has underlying performances that are perhaps an indicator that he can kick on, yeah. e.g. there's a striker in a lower league, he's banging goals in for fun 22 for the season already, the scout sees him bag a brace and dominate the defenders. But when you look at his underlying metrics for the season, he's way below his xG and his post-shot xG is even worse, his pass % is poor etc. The stats don't ignore the opposition, the stats average out the opposition. It doesn't matter if Pascal Fancypants is playing in the J-League or Serie A, if he consistently outperforms his xG, consistently completes a high number of passes, and all the metrics that aren't publicly available look good, then yeah clubs can use data to identify players with potential to play at a higher level than they currently are. Why would the elite clubs spend so much on recruitment analysis and data teams if it couldn't?

I'm sure you've predicted big tings for flops, and I'm sure you've also called players worse than shit and been proven wrong. Stats are sweet sweet objectivity baby.

Come on TS, Holden doesn't like numbers. You know this. They frighten and confuse him.

When Musk does end Twitter surely some nerdlinger will create a new social network platform that's quiet for the first few years, then kind of good and fun, then widely popular, then terrifyingly right wing until it collapses too?

24 pages of Sunderland fans telling eachother how ridiculous it is that Newcastle fans are bothered about an U21 game but how brilliant it is that they drew. I noticed they're already downplaying any future derby as not a real derby. Quick glance at the Championship table tells me they won't need to worry about that for a while...

Old man sitting in a pub years from now, watching Newcastle United lift another trophy, quietly and reverentially strokes the 'Bass 90+4 31/10/2022' tattooed on his arm. Never forget.

Coward.

Also, we need several players of good or great quality if we want to compete on multiple fronts. Trossard doesn't have to be a replacement for ASM, it might be that's he's a target to provide competition?

Don't forget both our clubs were sleeping giants, woken from our slumber by a mountain of arabian cash dumped on top of us.

Read somewhere that France would accept a UK processing centre on their soil which would dramatically reduce the number of small boats risking the journey.

Who needs a car when you can get the Fun Bus?

Why are all the Liverpool fan vlogs hosted by Irishmen and not scousers?

You, doddering around the big smoke, crowded by a group confused Japanese tourists insisting on a selfie with Gordon Wamsey-san, slowing you down even more.

I don't know what your 9yr old is into, so I can't really make a suggestion. But my point wasn't that you shouldn't take them. It was that you absolutely should take them there, so that you're not clogging up the good bits for the rest of us.

Shhh, it keeps all the dithering, dawdling fools away from the better places.

And those 6 losses were; Liv 2-1 at Anfield to a 99th minute goal and suspect offside call. Man City 5-0 at the Etihad... fair enough Liv 0-1 at St James' Spurs 5-1 at their gaff. Everton 1-0 at Goodison to a 99th minute winner, despite us battering them for the whole game. Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford bridge to an 89th minute winner. I think were we to replay those fixtures now, we wouldn't lose to Chelsea or Everton. And we wouldn't ship 10 goals to Man City and Spurs. Honestly, we're getting around 1.8-2 PpG under Howe, so if you were to add 10pts from another 6 games to take it up to 38. You'd get 72 pts from 38 played. That gets you Top 4.

Had a look on a Villa message board to see their levels of confidence. Well, that win against Brentford has sure buoyed their self belief. Loads predicting a Villa win. Despite us being in 4th, having conceded the fewest amount of goals in the league, being among the league leaders for high xG and low xGA. Despite them not winning at St James' since 2005 where we had 3 men sent off and they had 2 penalties. Despite us only losing to Liverpool so far. Despite them getting nigh on half their total goal tally in the last game (4/11). To be fair, there are some dissenting voices, but they're not as fun, are they?

... whaaaa?

Who's on first?