Rayvin

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/03/porton-down-experts-unable-to-verify-precise-source-of-novichok Shock horror, they don't know where the nerve agent came from.

Daily updates from trooper on how the sky is falling in for xyz reason mixed with people initially saying he is totally overreacting, and then gradually being turned over to his side as the end of the window draws ever closer and we haven't signed anyone etc etc. Mass suicide proposed on September 1st. Then we win our next two games and top ten is nailed on.

Aye there is that. On the balance of things I agree tbh.

Torn on Southampton. Of those mentioned, they're the most likely to recover and be a headache to us next season, so on that basis I would want them to go down. But having said that, I don't really feel that they deserve it as a club...

Palace looked certain to go down at the start of the season, 8 losses in a row and no goals or something like that? Would be kinda funny if they failed now after hauling themselves back from the abyss.

If we get sold I'll put the £10 in either way, but technically you win if we spend under the £40m so that's up to you. The bet is about Ashley really though so it's no skin off my nose if you don't.

I guess tbh if the club gets sold we could end up spending a lot more and the bet kinda becomes irrelevant. If that happens I'll pay in £10 anyway out of general happiness at the situation

Oh. Well fair enough - I seem to recall there being some manner of previous scandals on here with people not paying (Deano?) so I just figured a precedent had been set. But yeah, more than happy to operate on trust.

Sure thing. I may need to be advised what is considered proof of payment to them at the time mind you? I assume a screenshot of a receipt or something? Not that I'll lose of course

Sure, a tenner it is. Hm... I don't actually think we'll get Kennedy in the end so I'm going to go for the >£40m. And besides agreeing on a tenner to the SBR, what other terms would we need? Falls due when the window closes I guess? Although Dubravka and Kennedy, if bought, are included in the £40m.

I'm bored. Although the summer window spending bit is actually something I believe.

This is all going to be fairly easy to determine. If we have a net spend of £30m+ in the summer, I'm going to assume I was right EDIT - £40m I guess with Dubravka and Kennedy, minus any squad players going out.

Agreed, but the first one wasn't caused by his cost-cutting bollocks, and the second one could have been a learning experience. It's not like Ashley is gonna sit there and think that saving £20m at the risk of losing £100m is a workable idea unless he is presumably something like 80% sure it will pay off. Businesses manage risk and sure, football is riskier than many other industries, but you still need to draw a line in the sand somewhere. If the club is spending what it generates, and he sticks to this, then I'm happy. So far so good if we stay up. Also, Ashley spend £80m the season we went down didn't he? So he gambled that an £80m outlay would be enough to secure £100m. What he didn't appreciate was that McClaren was turboshit.

But we will strengthen too. Look, the proof is going to be the summer window. I think we will spend, I think much of the expenditure will come from non-player sales based funds. I have no idea how much but given the figures being thrown around last summer by the other clubs, I think we could reasonably expect about £30-40m net. If I'm wrong then Ashley is clearly trying to do something other than run a sustainable football club. Or we've woefully overestimated how much additional revenue this TV deal should free up. All I'm saying is that his decision making over the past couple of years has, demonstrably, been successful. It doesn't mean I trust him, or like him, but it does mean that actually, something is working.

I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him, I'm just saying that looking at his behaviour over the past couple of years, he's actually backed the right outcome each time so far. And you have to assume that his only interest is financial - and there's a decent case for keeping Rafa, and keeping him fairly happy, being a good financial decision.

Yeah but it depends on to what extent you consider it a gamble anyway. Ok so Ashley could have taken out £100m to pay for players, and loaded more debt onto the club - a gamble in itself. Or he could have done what he did, trusted the team that was promoted, trusted that it could perform better than much of the dross in the PL with Rafa at the helm, and moved forward from there. If that's the decision he came to after full analysis of the information at his disposal, keeping in mind that the club can 'only spend what it generates', then I'm happy that this is a good business decision. Benefit of hindsight for sure, but it's hard to argue that a midtable finish on a minimal outlay is anything other than a success story for both Rafa and Ashley.

Not hugely convinced that Stavely was serious, as I said at the time. Her offer was derisory compared to what was being asked for. Yeah you could argue that Ashley coulda just taken it and run but I don't think he's that desperate to be out tbh. If the club lives within its means then it's not a headache to him. He has gambled on Rafa several times now and it has paid off each time. Maybe he has more faith in the guy than you do?

I thought our January business was fine, on the grounds that we have pulled clear (more or less) of relegation. At the time I was worried, but apparently the management structure at the club were capable of making a better decision than I would have been from the outside looking in The summer's business was frustrating for sure, and I think you can clearly point to the failure to spend pulling us into a relegation fight but on the other side of things, if not for a late capitulation against Bournemouth we'd be 10th. And yeah the margins are so fine that my argument looks stronger at the moment because it ignores the fact that we're only 7 points about the drop zone but honestly, if we're saying that Ashley gambled on the club staying up by virtue of having a really good manager, and used this as a reason not to end up paying over the odds in the last window, then really, you have to say that his gamble has paid off. There is no other way of looking at it in the short term. We will not go down, and honestly we look like fairly good shouts for midtable. As for the January window in the Championship - yep, frustrating again, but we went up top of the table. So again, another Ashley gamble that paid off. And yeah it's down to Rafa, but he did hire Rafa at the end of the day.

You think we need to sign those two players, a striker, left and right backs and another first teamer in the centre, plus youth investment, to hit what? Top 10? We're already within touching distance of that with the loanees. If we had them for a full season you would think we would be 8th to 10th. With the additional players you're talking about I suspect we could be pushing into 7th but... is that really what we should be aiming for next season? I reckon Rafa would be satisfied with the ability to go top 10 and a decent cup run personally.

I think if you consider that he thought McClaren was probably a good appointment, backed with £80m, and that we've had Rafa since then - you could look at just the past couple of years and consider that he may have learned his lesson. Ok so it's qualified - he wouldn't invest to make sure we would go up but actually we did so anyway so his gamble paid off. He wouldn't invest to make sure we would stay up this season but again, his gamble looks like it will pay off. So yeah, considering his full tenure - lots of mistakes. The past couple of years? I'm not convinced he's made one to be honest. You could point to the relationship with Rafa breaking down but we only have papertalk to support that, and idk, Rafa is still here. He forked out for Rafa (he could have gotten rid of him when we went down remember) so I'm prepared to consider that a 'good' decision. In fact, that decision alone makes me think that he can actually see the value and long term cost savings of having someone like Rafa here, and happy. If the club generates its own money so he doesn't have to invest, I don't see at all why he would have a problem with us spending.

Assuming we pick up Dubravka and Kennedy for something like £25m (I know the latter is less likely), and spend about £30m on a striker... what else do we even need? Another couple of loans, maybe one or two younger players for the future but... It's not like he needs to spend £100m. Or even £80m. Probably around £50m would cover the main issues in the squad. I can see us spending that if it is required for Benitez to stay. Especially if we get that extra £10m from finishing 10th instead of 15th

Ok, and why do you think Ashley wouldn't be aware of that?

I'm not worried ultimately because I can't do anything about it. Ashley isn't stupid IMO, he's just a gambler. With Rafa here he's in pretty safe hands so I can see the argument that he will keep things tight on the spending front. But then he would surely lose his manager after another year and end up having to give £80m to someone like McClaren. Ultimately, what is the point in all of this for Ashley if not to maximise the value of his asset. He doesn't seem that arsed about selling, and if he can run the club at a profit and still compete, why wouldn't he?

I love that we have close ups of the M&S logo and BHS, presumably to prove that civilisation has indeed reached Sunderland.

Yeah but if we end up buying these loan players you could argue it's just 'try before you buy'. Which, as I've said previously, I'm actually ok with. EDIT - sorry, to answer the main question - based on the fact that it'd be stupid not to and I don't see where the money goes if we don't, really.