Rayvin

Consider me brainwashed by the media on this one. I've caught myself a couple of times but its a hard one to shake.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/corbyn-poised-to-reject-demand-for-15-october-election Labour going to wait by the sounds of it...

I have just watched Johnson talking for ages at a press conference concerning increasing police numbers and he's just a rambling moron. Aside from anything else, he's incapable of making coherent sentences let alone arguments.

I think you could quite possibly be right, but I also think that the situation may be deteriorating quickly in terms of 'how the public see things'. I'm not sure Boris is coming off all that strong at the moment. Conversely, if Corbyn can just shut up and sit down for a bit, avoid doing anything stupid and force Johnson to humiliate himself by asking for an extension, he might win some people over.

From the Daily Mail comment section - just one comment, sure, but still: After witnessing the shenanigans of the last 3 years I won't put my trust in the Tory party unless we leave the EU first. I have no faith left and the votes in Parliament to stop Brexit will continue. I would advise the 17.4 million who voted leave to give their vote to Nigel Farage. He hasn't wavered in his wish to leave the EU.

I'm not a Swinson advocate on anything other than Brexit, but I am curious how anyone can possibly be "proud" of the utter shitshow that austerity has proven to be. If nothing else it demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what the fuck has actually happened in the past 5 years.

I mean, that doesn't seem particularly objectionable on the face of it. Some people value gender identity as more important than the merits of individual human beings. It's just how society is. And I don't agree it should be like that, but as has been said, this is the world we live in.

Tbf, if it was one of those "she's a woman and it's important to have a statue of her to inspire young girls, etc" kind of articles then I think that's forgivable. If it was advocacy of her politics and the "good" she did for the country, then I find it repellent.

Are you fucking serious? At some point in the future, Labour are going to fucking obliterate her with that

Swinson delivered a very good anti-Boris speech yesterday, I was impressed with it. Having said this, beyond her Brexit position I have no idea what she even stands for. I would love to hear her articulate which of Corbyn's policy positions she objects to though.

The LDs are going to be in a stronger position after any upcoming GE than they are now. Maybe she has the clout to demand that. In which case she enables a BP/Tory coalition, as the next most viable alternative, I would think. I just can't see her doing that.

Fucking good afternoon And yes, it's.. I mean none of this surprises me anymore.

That she may be, but she's also staunchly Remain. She's polar opposed to the Tories on Brexit and I don't think the Lib Dems, if faced with a coalition prospect that delivers a second referendum, could possibly turn it down even if it meant enabling Corbyn. Not without betraying their voters all over again and heading for another decade in the wilderness.

I don't think Corbyn will get in either, but I think that's largely because his Brexit position isn't going to change - I mean I was a long time backer of his and I won't vote Labour next time out principally because of that. I could see him perhaps getting in through a coalition government. And you said Momentum were responsible for creating the huge fuck up - what would a stronger opposition have done differently? Assuming they had the same number of MPs as Corbyn does now. Unless you believe that Labour would have won more MPs last time without him, despite having a 10% increase in vote share. Or is it that if Corbyn had not been leader during the referendum, none of this ever would have happened because instead of 67% of Labour voters going for Remain, 80% of them would have (the number required to break even against the Remain/Leave differential), a higher proportion of its members than the LDs and even the Greens if I remember rightly.

How have Momentum caused this over and above the Tories, exactly? In the 2017 GE, Corbyn got 40% of the vote. The Tories got 43%. That's a decent chunk of the electorate. Labour are down in the polls at the moment only because 50% of their 2017 voters have abandoned them for the LDs, because they want to Remain.

Not if we have the people's vote first. And also, Johnson is going to be compelled to ask the EU for an extension, days after saying he would do this under no circumstances. That kind of thing will drive people to the Brexit Party even if he didn't have a choice. And if he resigns rather than go through that, then we have who, exactly, leading the Tories? Gove? I'm not sure it'll be enough, they have no one left except Rees-Mogg who has been visible on Brexit particularly.

Yep true. It might de-toxify Corbyn in some ways, but in other ways it looks like the chaos in the Tory party has spread to Labour. I think Corbyn is generally doing ok at the moment though so I'm going to wait and see before judging him.

An anonymous minister has just advised that Boris will resign rather than go to the EU for an extension. If that happens, honestly, I think we should get that rainbow coalition. They get in, carry out a people's vote, then run a general election and put the damn thing to bed. On that basis, Corbyn should absolutely not countenance an October GE.

Could all be part of the theatre. Sounds like there will be a mass Labour rebellion either way which might actually be enough to stop it. Corbyn could actually have his cake and eat it here if he's into unbelievably high stakes gambling.

Don't think that debate has happened. No Deal might have a hard time getting on there if Parliament stays as it is. I think that's risky though as No Deal is clearly beatable.

Tories/Brexit Party/UKIP - No Deal Labour/Lib Dems/Greens/Everyone Else - 2nd Referendum based on a choice between May's Deal, No Deal, and Remain

I agree, I don't want them to do it. But I think that's the direction we're heading. Corbyn can now claim the Tories are forcing his hand in his meetings with the PLP.

Apparently there will be another vote on an early GE on Monday. The thinking on this is that the Benn Amendment will have become law. This means, IMO, that the Tories think Corbyn has come on strong enough in talking about voting for a GE once Benn as royal assent, that he's unlikely to back down. It would also explain why the filibustering in the Lords suddenly stopped. Now, this is a tough one. It does on the one hand put all the power in the hands of Corbyn - and the Tories might have blown their load over him being a 'coward' too soon. He could very well turn around on Monday and say that Labour won't vote for it, citing mistrust in the government to follow the letter of the law. In which case, the Tories are completely outflanked in parliament. However, the impact with the public may be less clear - I could see people taking a very dim view of Corbyn backing down "a second time". So, I think Labour will indeed vote for a GE on Monday.

In the Brexit committee Michael Gove has just finished answering a series of questions about how Dover would cope with lorry arrivals in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Hilary Benn, the committee chair, did not sound hugely reassured, and he concluded by asking Gove to admit that no one actually knows what will happen in the event of no deal. Gove did not contest this, but replied: Benn said unfortunately the Almighty would not be appearing as a witness.

Single Market yes. Everything else no.