Rayvin

If I was May I would vote down his deal on principle.

I'm wondering if we might see Cummings resign soon. If we do then i think we can conclude that the wheels have come off and Johnson is in self preservation mode.

Given his probable upbringing, it's likely that he was referred to within his family and friends as "Master Payne" Alias Betty (obscure Kung Pow reference).

How could he credibly claim a GE is a more reasonable way of doing that than a referendum?

This is the last game in town for the ERG, they have to go for it. They're the least of our worries, it's the other factions we need to watch.

I have a general feeling of dread about this. I do not trust the Labour MPs at all and I think the ERG will know this is as good as it gets now.

I dunno man, I have a bad feeling about this. Maybe he's playing exactly the same game that May was but with far more effectiveness. Scare his own party and parliament into thinking that No Deal is possible, even when it has been legislated against, scare the EU into thinking it, and somehow come out with some manner of deal that's basically hard Brexit. In fact the more I think about it, the more realistic it sounds. I think he's serious about this deal, and I think it's been the game plan all along. Financial speculators betting against the pound, Cummings, "dead in a ditch", it's all a red herring to make it seem like he was hell bent on No Deal when in fact he just wanted a more ably handled shot at May's gambit. And it's not really even for the EU's benefit, save for the small amount of additional concessions he needed to be able to re-package May's deal. The threat of No Deal has always been about terrifying Parliament - and this time it's working. Those 19 Labour rebels man, they're the ones who will deliver him. He'll get his deal, go back to the people claiming to have won the day for Brexit (which he will have done, hands down), win any subsequent election off the back of looking like the most competent politician in the room, and finish off Labour. The left and centre will turn on Corbyn of course, although I do now think that actually, Labour had played this fairly well throughout - being able to take us into the ballpark of another referendum was always going to be difficult, but they have managed to get it right to the line. Corbyn will resign, someone else takes over but the energy drops out of the bottom of Labour and the youth give up on trying to change anything, going back to being disaffected. The Lib Dem vote collapses since the main reason anyone would vote for them has now disappeared. And another decade of the Tories. If he gets his deal through, IMO that's where we're heading.

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

Ah I see, so I have the chronology off - The US presence was creating a deadlock within which no progress was being made by anyone. Their departure has created a power vacuum that Erdogan has sailed into. I was under the impression that Erdogan had been intending to do this for some time and the US had in effect simply jumped out of the way. In terms of moving away from deadlock, what options did the US have? Is it feasible that continued operations would have seen them secure the Kurdish borders?

What would the right thing have been? War with Turkey? EDIT - this isn't a challenge, it's just a question.

I have been thinking a lot about this and have some queries because the more I think about it, the more I think Trump has done the right thing here. It's been reported today that a Russian backed deal with Syria, which will see the Kurds revert to Syrian rule instead of being autonomous, has been agreed. The Kurds have surrendered their newly won freedoms in exchange for protection from Erdogan, which will see the political situation return to more or less where it was before this whole fiasco kicked off. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/14/assad-troops-enter-northeast-syria-russia-backed-deal-kurds/ So I think we can safely assume that Russia and Syria will be able to repel Turkey at least as well as the US would have been, if not more. The Kurds, for their part, agreed to this pretty quickly. In fact, the whole thing happened so fast that I would be surprised if the US didn't expect/know of it. So ok, we've surrendered geopolitical control of the region to Russia, more or less as things were before Obama got involved. What would the US or the Kurds have gained by the US staying? A full on war with Turkey? Do any of us actually want that? As humiliating as this is for the US, I actually think fewer people will die this way. As a further point, this stupid conflict has created a influx of refugees into Europe which has been part of the overall propulsion of the far right within European states. I mean Merkel admitting 1 million Syrians into Germany 3 months before Brexit might have been the difference between leave and remain. Erdogan now threatening another 3.6m might be the difference next time (if there is a next time). The US has basically waded into a war near enough on our doorstep, the destabilising consequences of which have been felt all over the continent. If Trump's departure ends this, allows Assad and Putin to stamp it out and finally put the issue to rest, then maybe that's actually just for the best. I'm not saying Trump had any manner of thoughts along these lines when he left, but unintentionally, this may be the best course of action. If Russia protects the Kurds, then I think it probably is. So am I overlooking something?

I think they've thrown that in there to make it more likely that the speech gets voted down.

This is where I have been for the past day now. I really think he can get a deal through. The Labour rebels too..

I'm concerned, but then I was always going to be with the prospect of a deal. He's going to pitch this as some kind of fucking compromise. If Brexit was on a scale of 0 to 100 with 0 as remain and 100 as no deal, I have the sense that he's going to come back with a 97 and try to pretend that it's a 52. And the 52 will think that it is.

That is beyond painful.

In what sense is working at Nissan not a proper job?

The fucking stupid thing about that is that if Nissan goes, Sunderland becomes an even more impoverished shit hole than it already is, and those leave voters become more angry, and more prone to nationalistic fervour. Anything to make them feel better about themselves. So as much as it might be satisfying to watch the silly bastards burn in the flames of their own choices, it's not really good for the country long term because they lack the emotional responsibility to take ownership of their mistakes.

Part of me wonders if Trump putting the whims of one US citizen over that of justice and his country's relationship with a long term ally may encourage the people who think that we're going to get some kind of awesome US trade deal that we're really just going to be shat upon from a great height. But it probably won't.

Tbf that's Brexit supporters in a nutshell.

I get the feeling that Hammond is a bit of a political introvert but you're right.

I mean yes - I think on here at least we're pretty consistent on an election not solving anything. For me it needs to be a referendum. But an election solves nothing - it will be a remainer parliament with a Brexit government, once again (if the polls are anything to go by)

If this is true, Johnson is fucked. So I think he's lying - unless he can somehow still manage to keep Farage on board so that they don't cannibalise each other.

I suspect he's going to resign tbh, possibly off the back of his Queen's Speech being voted down, thus opening up the trap for Labour to walk into. If he does, the GE needs to happen later rather than sooner, and a people's vote needs to occur first. But Labour will take the bait.

I agree on that tbf, but I am curious as to what it is they think they can do. I remain more concerned about a deal happening than anything else. Was always the real danger.

He's clearly got some kind of gambit. Sounds a little like it could be to try to override the legitimacy of Parliament with the legitimacy of the referendum. And it's great that the DUP have rejected it but once Johnson gets hold of them I'm less sure they'll resist.