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Rayvin

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Everything posted by Rayvin

  1. I think it looks favourable. Brexit Party is down for now, which gives Labour some protection - plus they don't have the same reach that Labour do anyway, in terms of activists and campaigners. The LDs appear to be targeting the Tory moderates. Combined with the sophisticated tactical voting plan that the People's Vote group is going to produce, I think it's odds on that a Remain coalition comes out on top. Admittedly, this is assuming that Cummings is as smart as he seems to be (not very), and that the surge of Tory facebook campaigning isn't enough to change the flow.
  2. Johnson has a big lead only because remainers have abandoned Labour for the LDs. Both Labour and the LDs could be in coalition together (if Swinson gets over herself) or at the very least could get enough MPs to vote through a second referendum. Combine those two parties and suddenly Johnson is behind. Number 10's private polling revealed they currently think he's on course for 290 seats - which is no majority. I would ignore that lead, it doesn't present the real picture. Especially if he rules out a pact with the BP. And if he rules it in, the LDs will take a bigger number of moderate Tories. I am convinced a second referendum will put this to bed if we can just get there.
  3. I had a similar experience although not over racism. Huge drama about nothing and no intent to do harm on my side. Took a lot of counselling to work through it. Sorry to hear what happened to your daughter, it's not right. The other kid I kind of understand but the teachers should handle it a lot better than they did.
  4. Agree with this. Whether he is racist or not, the sorts of things he is alleged to have said are clearly aimed at black players only and have their roots in the casual racism of the imperial age. Yeah sure, maybe he didn't know it was racist (i.e. he hasn't read the news in the last 20 years) but that still doesn't make it acceptable and an example needs to be made. Good player in his day but apparently a fucking moron. Makes me think the club should implement some kind of diversity training though.
  5. I'm not sure the arguments have been poor, I think it's more that the delivery has been lacking. And also, in fairness, the will on the leave side to pay any attention to people who are demonstrably better informed has been entirely absent.
  6. Yeah that's where I'm heading. Outright revoke is fine if it comes down to an all or nothing scenario where it's the only way to avert No Deal, but otherwise we have to believe that after all this, the public are can actually do the right thing on a second vote. And as NJS said, I suppose they've done this without any expectation whatsoever that they'll be in the position to do anything about it. As such, they're banking on picking up the diehard remainers, probably from Labour - it's just cynical. And fucking risky. Labour's position does seem to be the only responsible option.
  7. If she's going after the Tories then it's no bad thing. The Lib Dems, I'm positive, used to eat more into Labour's vote share than anyone else's. If that's about to change then good.
  8. Lib Dems have made things difficult now IMO. They look to be the extremists on the Remain side in the same sense that the Tories are now the extremists on the Brexit side. Labour amazingly look like they've positioned themselves in the fairest way, with the highest chance of putting the issue to bed without total chaos. Unsure which way to vote now but am starting to think NJS is right about Swinson. While I still don't know her politics very well, I think she's started running before she can walk here. I'm not someone who believes that Corbyn is an 'extreme option' outside of Brexit, but I'm a bit curious to know what the people who do think about the current lay of the land. Choices for them are now "extreme Brexit, extreme Remain, or extreme Corbyn"
  9. I think I'm hoping it all falls flat ultimately, risky though that may be.
  10. They voted that down every time though. Johnson getting a deal is his only 'out' now, I'm concerned about Parliament granting No Deal in all but name (May's deal) and giving him a lifeline.
  11. If he gets something through with the EU concerning NI, would it not still mean 'no deal' for the rest of us. Is it any more likely to get through Parliament even if he does fix that.
  12. I genuinely believe that a number of things done by the government in recent days would indeed rank as treasonous.
  13. Ok well, this sounds overall like a pretty big positive then. Until the Supreme Court shuts it all down on Tuesday
  14. What tangible consequence does that actually have?
  15. Only if you believe that there is actually some kind of negotiation required here. Maybe I've missed this, but it has seemed to me that the EU has more or less said that we can have any of the off the shelf models, or a tailor made bespoke model that is a stones throw off no deal. Assuming Labour aren't going for the latter option, they're literally going to be coming back with Soft Brexit. So then it goes to the people and we have a choice. Are you saying that the EU would somehow turn around and say that actually, we can't have soft Brexit because it's more likely that we will vote to Remain if they force us into almost No Deal? The responsible thing for May to have done is literally what Labour has just proposed. Obviously she would have campaigned for her deal, but given that Labour campaigned pre-referendum to Remain, I don't think a cross party backed exit deal followed by a referendum within which they campaign for Remain is at all inconsistent. It's just fucking honest. There is no variation of leaving this trading bloc that is better than just staying the fuck in. That's what Labour's position is.
  16. I've now watched that several times, and her position makes complete sense to me. I genuinely don't understand what it is that people are struggling to grasp. Labour's position - we will negotiate a deal (probably along the lines of an off the shelf Norway/Canada model with some tweaks for the UK specific requirements) that we believe is the best we can get while fulfilling the original Brexit mandate, and then we will put it to the people but still maintain that Remain is a better option. So in other words, they're giving the people a fully informed decision made as safe as it can be. Honest to fuck I despair at the media in this country, they're fucking cretins. EDIT - I'm going to add that I thought it was stupid at first too, but the fact that it clearly is not, and that it's still doing the rounds as if it is, makes me despair.
  17. If Scotland goes they're going to take a large number of younger people from England with them. Which will probably be an economic boon tbh.
  18. I meant the cries of 'shame' but interesting where your minds went.
  19. The scenes at the close of Parliament were pretty dramatic Opposition MPs basically giving the Tories a GOT walk of shame.
  20. I'm on Merlot which, before we get the jibes in, I'm aware will surprise none of you
  21. Political disengagement, I totally agree about. And you're right about it leading to fascism. Really that's all I meant with my door metaphor concerning Cameron - he opened the door and, apparently, fascism is trying to walk through it.
  22. Gonna put on record that I've been drinking so if I'm more robust in my assertions than usual, then I apologise. Still fucking right though
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