Rayvin

Yeah, this was always going to be the angle. It's actually fascinating political theatre. If only it was happening in the US instead.

I swear just the other day they were making positive noises about all of this. Even this morning it sounded like they could be brought around.

I hope to god you're right, I couldn't stomach this being delivered off the back of Labour MPs. Not that I can stomach it anyway. On the DUP - does "will not support" = "will vote against"?

I guess I'm mostly just unsettled by their flip-flopping. Also, for some reason I just seem unable to believe that anyone on the right is capable of a principled stance on anything.

Well they've just announced they won't go for it so you're right so far, but then Johnson must be seriously confident he can win over a decent clutch of Labour rebels. EDIT - if he gets all 19, he's done it.

I would. Money can buy them, they've proven it. Moreover, even if they don't, we are now probably looking at no possibility of the deal being voted through on the basis of a referendum - every vote going Johnson's way is a vote against that, I reckon. Minus the DUP who will vote both down if Johnson can't get them onside.

So that takes us to 303 for the Tories. Still not a majority but assuming Johnson can strongarm the DUP, that's 313. Then it's just a handful of Labour rebels.

But completely expected tbh. And Johnson will be ready to offer them whatever they want to come back 'on side'.

Unless he's talking to them and has revealed that it's just posturing for a subsequent election.

Sorry no, it was speculated by the Spectator's political editor as the government's trump card and given how this is unfolding I think they're probably right. The only reason for him to say that is to bolster his credentials ahead of a GE. It's irrelevant to the actual discourse - but for him to be confident enough to state it, he must have either the expectation that his deal will go through, or the EU's guarantee of the previous point.

What makes you so sure that the ERG won't vote for this? I don't think they're a principled bunch, I think they'll recognise that this is the only game in town for Brexit, and they'll cave and vote it through. I suspect it'll be: Almost all Tories + 19 Labour rebels + at least half of the Tory rebels, probably including Ken Clarke, Rudd, and a handful of others. Grieve and Boles may sit it out, along with any who joined the LDs, but many will go for it. 288 + 19 + 14 Tory rebels would do it.

The only chance we stand, I think, is a coherent remain movement insisting on a second referendum amendment to the deal. Well thought out and planned beforehand. So we're fucked.

Why is it odds against?

Why are people so confident that Parliament will do this over a Johnson deal? The 19 Labour rebels won't even countenance a second referendum, let alone revoke. I doubt the Tory rebels could bring themselves to choose that over a deal as well. Parliament is going to be very aware that voting down this deal means that we're looking at either No Deal or Revoke, and against the uncertain backdrop of that final choice, I think they'll take the deal. Johnson thinks they will, and the EU thinks they will (assuming the EU are indeed going to back Johnson up on this and make clear that any further extensions are going to be technical only).

How? If the EU say it's this deal or bust, how are we going to force them to give us an extension? If Johnson has secured that statement from them, we're fucked. Because if we don't vote for this deal, it's either revoke or No Deal. And of the two former options, I think they'll take the deal over revoke.

The irony to all of this course is that it appears to be the EU who are totally in control of this. "Wait till the last minute to get a deal, it's when you see the whites of your opponents eyes" - The UK waited, the EU saw the whites of our eyes and we conceded on basically everything. "No Deal is a negotiating gambit to get a better deal" - the EU, the party in the position of strength, seems to be about to use no deal to force the UK to vote for a very EU friendly deal because they know we fear it more. Aside from Brexit itself, the UK is being humiliated here.

Then it'll be No Deal and Boris still wins.

It does if the EU come out and say it's this or no deal. That's also how Johnson negates the extension - if he's managed to get the EU to agree not to give an extension to force this deal through, then Parliament will vote for it because the only alternative is revoke and they just won't do that. Only remaining chance is amending it with the referendum but do we have the numbers for that? The Labour rebels won't back it based on what they've said so far.

Yeah but it's whether they prefer revoke to this deal. They'll look past the vote on this deal and see only two remaining options. They have no mandate at all to revoke other than it being in the best interests of the country. They'll take the deal.

Yes but we both know they won't do that. The political bravery required is just not there. There'll be a movement for it, probably from Swinson, but I'm not even sure Labour would get behind it unless there was certainty it would win. I made a post a couple of days back about how it seemed that the No Deal gambit was about scaring Parliament and not the EU - I stand by that. The EU are now poised, in a stunning turnaround, to force the UK to vote for a deal using the threat of No Deal, with the blessing of the UK government. No Deal was the threat to get the super right wing version of Brexit past Parliament, that's all it ever was IMO.

Are the EU going to shaft us, is the question.

Tbf to the EU, if it does go to a referendum then they'll look better for voters having attempted to make this work, than actively trying to block it.

Wait what? How is he going to do that. Where is he getting the numbers from?