Rayvin

I don't think he gives a shit as long as he's Prime Minister.

Separate, left of field notion - if it came down to it, do you think a Tory/Liberal coalition could be achieved off the back of Johnson conceding a second referendum, and Swinson otherwise agreeing to prop him up? It would actually be a less stunning betrayal of the LD voters than it might first appear.

After 10 years of Tory austerity that Labour had effectively stood by and let go unchallenged, that would have been a big ask. But yes, that's the only possible way he could have made any difference. So then we're effectively comparing the net gains of Corbyn's position of having a re-run of the referendum which will appeal to a small but doubtless existent set of Labour friendly leavers, versus Blair just persuading them to vote the right way. I would argue that the difference would be vanishingly small.

Corbyn's position is by far and away the most logical one being put forward by any party. I defy anyone to explain to me that it isn't. Both from an electoral point of view in terms of maximising the pool of potential voters for Remain, and morally in terms of undoing the damage that this has caused in the fairest possible way. And ok, so Johnson would have definitely been more or less where he is in the polls then under what you're proposing - full leave vote behind him, in the 40-45% range. And you think that Labour therefore is either ahead of that or at least matching it. Something that I'm not sure we've ever even seen as a country (45%+). The Lib Dems basically non-existent along with all other parties, including the SNP.

So he abandons the Labour leavers. I see. And what is done about the Brexit Party under this grand strategy? I mean what you're proposing is simply cannibalizing voters from another Remain party.

Go on. How does Blair take a polarising issue like Brexit and win over the 46/47% of the electorate that is fervently leave, and which is propping up the Tories?

So back to that first point then. What would Blair, for the sake of argument, if he were in opposition right now - have done to avert this? So Brexit has happened, and Blair is a staunch remainer. How does that win over any Labour leavers? How does that bring the country back together?

Ah so there's not a desire for centrism widespread enough to actually achieve it, just that if the left wingers within Labour would just sit down and shut up and vote for the centrists, everything will be ok again. I'm not voting for the centrists just to keep the Tories out. Not after austerity. It's not happening. I said right at the start of the Corbyn era that the left had to dig its fucking heels in and stay strong in the face of everything, come what may, if it wants to actually achieve anything. I sometimes think back on that comment and wonder about it, but if this is 'the end' for the left in this country - and I rather suspect it might be - then the centre cannot expect my vote in future. I don't believe they do anything apart from slow down the inevitable decline of the human experience and maybe it's better that we get the speedier version, frankly. Ok I can see this point - Corbyn in and of himself does indeed have a number of attributes that I could see centrist voters struggling with. But let's be honest, anyone who thinks these issues are significant over and above those which are presented by Boris fucking Johnson is really just looking for any excuse not to vote Labour. "We could vote for all these policies if only Corbyn wasn't in charge" harp the Lib Dems, the same thing they've said about every Labour leader in every election in the past 30 years. Corbyn has been a total pain in the arse on the Remain front but he has done exactly what I wanted him to do with Labour in terms of policies. If that makes them unelectable, and tbh I still don't buy that at all - I mean it's clear as fucking day from the numbers that Brexit has fucked everything on that front, so it's beyond me how anyone can draw meaningful conclusions about his performance - then so be it. At least the party can move on from here looking like the actual fucking left. Well, assuming we don't see a return of the centrists.

The centre moved during the austerity years. It's now where the right used to be. EDIT - The Lib Dems are offering that choice, are they not?

Actually, I do want to hear again how Corbyn could have won over a larger number of Leave voters - not sure that one ever got answered.

The 500k people who joined the party and the 40% of people who voted for him last time out. Look, let's not do this again. Corbyn was ultimately a symptom of the same failure of the centre that Brexit is. If when Corbyn goes we return to "radical centrism" then I think we can consider the Tories in power for the rest of our lives.

I can't see how it could possibly be true but honestly, it's just unknowable these days. I'm really not sure at all what happens if the Tories win this. Something approximating No Deal Brexit and then 5 years of Tory rule. Corbyn goes, Labour resumes soul searching, the momentum and energy behind the left collapses and a generation of young people give up on the whole affair. Some less threatening individual will replace him but without the vision or boldness that excites people, and it'll all just fall away. I think it might be win or bust for Labour. As it pretty much was before Corbyn appeared, in truth.

Electoral Calculus has the Tories on a 90 seat majority however So maybe I'm just wrong.

I think the Lib Dems could pivot to this without harming their pro-soft Tory stance. They can still claim they'll vote to block all manner of marxist craziness but will vote in support of Labour where it counts. The problem is, that's not much of an incentive for Labour.

I see your point, it'll be a mix of both of course. However, one way or another the Tories need to make significant gains still. National polling (I know) still indicates that the combined might of the Tories and Farage is only 45%.

It's bad news but let's not pretend it wasn't coming or indeed overstate it. The Brexit Party have done this because polling indicates that they're not really making any headway - 6% nationally. When you factor in that they're now not standing in half the seats, I expect that number changes. And as Gemmill's post a few days ago points out, the vast majority of people who would be minded to vote Brexit Party would not have voted Labour last time anyway - so it's arguable how much impact the BP is likely to have. Maybe one or two seats? Meanwhile, the Tories are set to lose 13 in Scotland and hopefully another 10 or 20 to the Liberals. Labour just needs to hold firm, and I broadly think they will.

Knowing this club, and Ashley, almost certainly yes.

Yeah I guess it is about the right time of year to start another bullshit takeover story.

They did, it was the 11 examples they seemed to struggle with. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/04/labour-adopts-ihra-antisemitism-definition-in-full

Well I know, but those tweets they're all citing suggest that they think there is. The lines are getting way too blurred on this now. Anti-semitism definitely is the one tool they have to beat Corbyn with, and he's so grossly mismanaged the whole thing that even I now think he might legitimately be antisemitic. But at the same time it's opened the floor up to any criticism of Israel becoming an issue on the same basis, apparently. I mean the Israelis must be loving this, what was that report a couple of years ago about them orchestrating take downs of anti-Israel MPs as admitted by their own embassy staff? Everything they ever wanted here.

Schofield seems to be accused of "anti-Semitism" in that thread for a tweet from 2010 which notes that David Milliband is pro-Israel in a disparaging way. How is that antisemitic? People are colossal morons these days, it's truly staggering.

This is just unbelievable from Labour, but it's also worth keeping in mind that the press has sat on all of this for apparently years so that it can be used at a time of maximum impact. If the press genuinely thought this was important, it would have come out at the time. Unless it's not the press and is in fact Labour members or politicians who have decided that now is the time to reveal all of this? Somebody knew about this a year ago and did fuck all with it until now.

Some mid-90s homophobia there takes me back.

Aye. It's the not dealing with it that gets me. And like, I understand sticking to his principles in having the freedom to criticise Israel, but at the end of the day it's a minor fucking issue that has no bearing on the country in any real sense. Just kill it off ffs.

Indeed. So dismal...