Rayvin

Then it'll be No Deal and Boris still wins.

It does if the EU come out and say it's this or no deal. That's also how Johnson negates the extension - if he's managed to get the EU to agree not to give an extension to force this deal through, then Parliament will vote for it because the only alternative is revoke and they just won't do that. Only remaining chance is amending it with the referendum but do we have the numbers for that? The Labour rebels won't back it based on what they've said so far.

Yeah but it's whether they prefer revoke to this deal. They'll look past the vote on this deal and see only two remaining options. They have no mandate at all to revoke other than it being in the best interests of the country. They'll take the deal.

Yes but we both know they won't do that. The political bravery required is just not there. There'll be a movement for it, probably from Swinson, but I'm not even sure Labour would get behind it unless there was certainty it would win. I made a post a couple of days back about how it seemed that the No Deal gambit was about scaring Parliament and not the EU - I stand by that. The EU are now poised, in a stunning turnaround, to force the UK to vote for a deal using the threat of No Deal, with the blessing of the UK government. No Deal was the threat to get the super right wing version of Brexit past Parliament, that's all it ever was IMO.

Are the EU going to shaft us, is the question.

Tbf to the EU, if it does go to a referendum then they'll look better for voters having attempted to make this work, than actively trying to block it.

Wait what? How is he going to do that. Where is he getting the numbers from?

And the fabled deal has been done, apparently. Fucks sake.

Now reports that we're back on again, DUP have folded. Until the next update in 10 mins when they've gone back to opposing it.

Have said a few times that the fucking deal looked like it might be pulled together. I mean he still needs the Tory rebels to make it work but I daresay he'll get them. Plus the Labour ones. I think we could be genuinely done now. And what's worst about it is that this is literally the only scenario where the Tories come out as winners. They will survive this and could ride the wave into the next 5 years. What an absolutely tragic period for the country. It's politically unforgiveable. Still thinking I won't even vote after this, I mean what's the fucking point. Johnson's about to take us to the cleaners.

But as I understand it, the Russians now have boots on the ground along the Kurdish border. I don't think Erdogan's offensive is going to be able to go much further tbh. And I'd prefer the Russians doing it over Trump.

Do you have any notion of what it's being spent on?

If I was May I would vote down his deal on principle.

I'm wondering if we might see Cummings resign soon. If we do then i think we can conclude that the wheels have come off and Johnson is in self preservation mode.

Given his probable upbringing, it's likely that he was referred to within his family and friends as "Master Payne" Alias Betty (obscure Kung Pow reference).

How could he credibly claim a GE is a more reasonable way of doing that than a referendum?

This is the last game in town for the ERG, they have to go for it. They're the least of our worries, it's the other factions we need to watch.

I have a general feeling of dread about this. I do not trust the Labour MPs at all and I think the ERG will know this is as good as it gets now.

I dunno man, I have a bad feeling about this. Maybe he's playing exactly the same game that May was but with far more effectiveness. Scare his own party and parliament into thinking that No Deal is possible, even when it has been legislated against, scare the EU into thinking it, and somehow come out with some manner of deal that's basically hard Brexit. In fact the more I think about it, the more realistic it sounds. I think he's serious about this deal, and I think it's been the game plan all along. Financial speculators betting against the pound, Cummings, "dead in a ditch", it's all a red herring to make it seem like he was hell bent on No Deal when in fact he just wanted a more ably handled shot at May's gambit. And it's not really even for the EU's benefit, save for the small amount of additional concessions he needed to be able to re-package May's deal. The threat of No Deal has always been about terrifying Parliament - and this time it's working. Those 19 Labour rebels man, they're the ones who will deliver him. He'll get his deal, go back to the people claiming to have won the day for Brexit (which he will have done, hands down), win any subsequent election off the back of looking like the most competent politician in the room, and finish off Labour. The left and centre will turn on Corbyn of course, although I do now think that actually, Labour had played this fairly well throughout - being able to take us into the ballpark of another referendum was always going to be difficult, but they have managed to get it right to the line. Corbyn will resign, someone else takes over but the energy drops out of the bottom of Labour and the youth give up on trying to change anything, going back to being disaffected. The Lib Dem vote collapses since the main reason anyone would vote for them has now disappeared. And another decade of the Tories. If he gets his deal through, IMO that's where we're heading.

It really sounds like any vote on Johnson's deal will be exceedingly close. I don't think he'll be toppled now. The ERG will back him and the Labour rebels may also. If they do it'll be unforgiveable but you never know.

Ah I see, so I have the chronology off - The US presence was creating a deadlock within which no progress was being made by anyone. Their departure has created a power vacuum that Erdogan has sailed into. I was under the impression that Erdogan had been intending to do this for some time and the US had in effect simply jumped out of the way. In terms of moving away from deadlock, what options did the US have? Is it feasible that continued operations would have seen them secure the Kurdish borders?

What would the right thing have been? War with Turkey? EDIT - this isn't a challenge, it's just a question.

I have been thinking a lot about this and have some queries because the more I think about it, the more I think Trump has done the right thing here. It's been reported today that a Russian backed deal with Syria, which will see the Kurds revert to Syrian rule instead of being autonomous, has been agreed. The Kurds have surrendered their newly won freedoms in exchange for protection from Erdogan, which will see the political situation return to more or less where it was before this whole fiasco kicked off. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/14/assad-troops-enter-northeast-syria-russia-backed-deal-kurds/ So I think we can safely assume that Russia and Syria will be able to repel Turkey at least as well as the US would have been, if not more. The Kurds, for their part, agreed to this pretty quickly. In fact, the whole thing happened so fast that I would be surprised if the US didn't expect/know of it. So ok, we've surrendered geopolitical control of the region to Russia, more or less as things were before Obama got involved. What would the US or the Kurds have gained by the US staying? A full on war with Turkey? Do any of us actually want that? As humiliating as this is for the US, I actually think fewer people will die this way. As a further point, this stupid conflict has created a influx of refugees into Europe which has been part of the overall propulsion of the far right within European states. I mean Merkel admitting 1 million Syrians into Germany 3 months before Brexit might have been the difference between leave and remain. Erdogan now threatening another 3.6m might be the difference next time (if there is a next time). The US has basically waded into a war near enough on our doorstep, the destabilising consequences of which have been felt all over the continent. If Trump's departure ends this, allows Assad and Putin to stamp it out and finally put the issue to rest, then maybe that's actually just for the best. I'm not saying Trump had any manner of thoughts along these lines when he left, but unintentionally, this may be the best course of action. If Russia protects the Kurds, then I think it probably is. So am I overlooking something?

I think they've thrown that in there to make it more likely that the speech gets voted down.