Rayvin

And so ofc, John Mann comes out and says he's voting for it and more than 9 others will also. If that's true, we're fucked. I think we could get away with 7.

I think this is where a lot of people are coming from now - I saw the guardian reference a poll that said 54% of people now back a deal over any other alternative. I doubt they know what's in the deal, what it means for them, or anything other than the fact that it "ends Brexit" - but that's where a lot of people are. I think on balance that this would chance over the course of a constructive referendum campaign, but it's still a concern.

Well they fucking should be, but why leave it to the exec committee? On the deal itself, the entire ERG will vote for it - looking at what is being said now I'm basically certain of that. The Tory rebels will most likely all go for it with perhaps 3 exceptions. So he only needs about 10 Labour rebels. It'll be a dark day in they vote it through.

Why is Labour not threatening to remove the whip from any Labour MPs who vote for this?

Tbh, you're right. But idk, I really thought we might avoid Brexit in the end if we held our nerve. Maybe that's still true but the revelation that Johnson might be some kind of political mastermind is a jarring one.

This is my fear too. His gambit to win over the Labour rebels is threaten them with No Deal, aided by Juncker's comments apparently - I can't see them voting for a referendum. We need some kind of miracle.

And you think Johnson won't have seen that coming? A people's vote is the biggest threat to his entire plan, I doubt he's simply counting on mere hope that it won't go through. He'll be up to something to prevent it somehow.

Who on the Remain side is inspiring any faith atm? The only thing I find a bit reassuring is that they're being quiet so far - hopefully that's because they're all squirreled away somewhere scheming about how to grasp victory from the jaws of defeat. But we all know they're probably sat with their respective parties and looking at how they can best capitalise on what happens in an election. Country be damned.

Even if this is true, the fact he's come out and said it is basically backing Johnson.

I still haven't made my mind up about whether I will just stop bothering to vote after this, or I will vote only for parties that that would take us back into the EU. Might go Green but honestly what's the point. You just can't win. I haven't been on the winning side of any election/public vote since I was old enough to be involved. In the meantime we can become a hard right, low tax, Singapore style mini-US on the EU's doorstep. Labour will be destroyed by this, and honestly I think political disenfranchisement amongst the young will surge. The Tories will survive. It turns out that in the game of politics the Tories are just unbeatable. There is no low they will not sink to, and for some reason, people just keep voting for things that help them. And we will now have another 10 years of them at least IMO.

Finding it hard not to agree with you on this... I guess they ran out of patience but the win was there for the taking. Also, it's not just them - if the Remain MPs could have gotten their stupid heads out of their arses on this issue and just agreed a government to kick Boris out of power, we wouldn't be here. We have been let down by fucking everyone on this.

Yeah, this was always going to be the angle. It's actually fascinating political theatre. If only it was happening in the US instead.

I swear just the other day they were making positive noises about all of this. Even this morning it sounded like they could be brought around.

I hope to god you're right, I couldn't stomach this being delivered off the back of Labour MPs. Not that I can stomach it anyway. On the DUP - does "will not support" = "will vote against"?

I guess I'm mostly just unsettled by their flip-flopping. Also, for some reason I just seem unable to believe that anyone on the right is capable of a principled stance on anything.

Well they've just announced they won't go for it so you're right so far, but then Johnson must be seriously confident he can win over a decent clutch of Labour rebels. EDIT - if he gets all 19, he's done it.

I would. Money can buy them, they've proven it. Moreover, even if they don't, we are now probably looking at no possibility of the deal being voted through on the basis of a referendum - every vote going Johnson's way is a vote against that, I reckon. Minus the DUP who will vote both down if Johnson can't get them onside.

So that takes us to 303 for the Tories. Still not a majority but assuming Johnson can strongarm the DUP, that's 313. Then it's just a handful of Labour rebels.

But completely expected tbh. And Johnson will be ready to offer them whatever they want to come back 'on side'.

Unless he's talking to them and has revealed that it's just posturing for a subsequent election.

Sorry no, it was speculated by the Spectator's political editor as the government's trump card and given how this is unfolding I think they're probably right. The only reason for him to say that is to bolster his credentials ahead of a GE. It's irrelevant to the actual discourse - but for him to be confident enough to state it, he must have either the expectation that his deal will go through, or the EU's guarantee of the previous point.

What makes you so sure that the ERG won't vote for this? I don't think they're a principled bunch, I think they'll recognise that this is the only game in town for Brexit, and they'll cave and vote it through. I suspect it'll be: Almost all Tories + 19 Labour rebels + at least half of the Tory rebels, probably including Ken Clarke, Rudd, and a handful of others. Grieve and Boles may sit it out, along with any who joined the LDs, but many will go for it. 288 + 19 + 14 Tory rebels would do it.

The only chance we stand, I think, is a coherent remain movement insisting on a second referendum amendment to the deal. Well thought out and planned beforehand. So we're fucked.

Why is it odds against?