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Everything posted by Rayvin
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Cults aside, what is it that they expect to do? The independent sees a remain coalition picking up 60 seats from the Tories. Labour just needs to hold on to heartlands and it'll be fine. I understood the political smarts of putting off this election but if they do it much longer they're going to end up reinforcing this idea that they're just running scared. I do not believe that they'll get a wipeout and am reasonably optimistic that they'll do better than the polls suggest. And if it does all go to hell, at least they'll be rid of Corbyn.
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What kind of horror show is going on at Southampton that they've managed that result? They've come out of nowhere and stolen our thunder as the most abject club in the division.
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-boris-johnson-conservatives-brexit-lib-dems-labour-a9114826.html?fbclid=IwAR3QA-EmayT6e6rqq7iU4l6LFLLlAFI86PPgpYT2J_Ij3gAChtMFlSPTleI Remain looks well primed for tactical voting.
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Do any of you ever wonder what it must be like to live in a country with reasonably functioning institutions and competent governance? Must be weird to actually have people serving the public good. Cant really imagine it tbh.
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I find it fairly believable. For Remainers, this is about freedoms. For Brexiteers, it's about being right. Both deeply held views, with the latter being emotionally immature in the extreme ofc, but still.
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And yet he's backing it.
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Everything that stops that deal going through is going to be held up as a reason to vote for Johnson. As far as plays go, it's a good one. We need Labour and the Remain camp to be shit hot on this now. Terrifyingly. But either way, they should go for it. Meet him head on, for death and glory
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Wait wait wait. His deal is still there. It almost looks like he's saying he'll grant the timetable extension for the deal to be read if there is an agreement about having a general election afterwards. So he'll continue with the deal, potentially achieve Brexit, and then crash into a general election having terrified the Labour rebels into voting for it. This is actually, depressingly, a smart move. He gets everything he's ever wanted, unless Labour can absolutely trash the deal in the meantime.
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God I hope this comes back to bite him. Cummings has just put 95% pure Brexit on the table as part of an all or nothing gamble to get 100% pure Brexit. It's completely irrational from his perspective. Even from Johnson's unless he thinks Corbyn will vote it down.
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If Johnson is about to go for an election then the game, amazingly, is still on.
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And for what it's worth, I would take no deal over Johnson's deal. The latter does pretty much all of the same damage but more slowly. Would be preferable to go "shock and awe" on this given how limited the average voters attention span is.
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I can't speak for all of us but my stance with it has been that since the Tories saw fit to interpret the result of a slender victory for leave as an opportunity to push for the pretty much most extreme version possible, I have been quite happy to respond to that flagrant abuse of power by looking for an opportunity to go totally the other way. Many remains MPs seem to have done the same. In fact, I remember one of the Tory rebels stating as he voted for Mays deal, that this was the last chance the ERG fuckheads had to vote for a deal before he and others went full remain. So that's what happened more or less. Now, granted we didn't expect the Tory party to actually side with the psychopaths, but they have at least been restrained. Anyway, the reason that we would insist a remain option on the table at a referendum is because the other two options (No deal and the surrender deal) are horrific and there is no evidence at all that they had majority backing at the referendum, given that neither was remotely discussed.
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Indeed. But as middle class, generally better off people, I think they can handle that. The great tragedy of this, IMO, is that it's going to destroy the relationship between the socially conscious middle class and the working class. To the detriment of the latter only.
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Not sure the bitter remainers will go back to Labour if Brexit is done.
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Yes, I think that if he just wants power, this is best. If he actually is all in for no deal then he'll go for a GE. The thing is though, presumably Labour will have something up their sleeves to bring us to a GE anyway. If we get that extension it might not matter what Johnson does with timetabling, he could face a VONC immediately.
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Oh god, what nonsense is afoot now. Hard to imagine this will lead anywhere other than presumably giving Johnson the chance to say Labour blocked him.
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The problem with this IMO is actually that there are a significant number of Labour rebels who outright oppose it. I think these rebels would take it if we're post GE and their seats are safe for another 5 years, but with a GE imminent it's never going to get through. We have to do this the high stakes way, sadly.
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It is not obvious to me at all that Johnson can win a GE. Even in the polls as they are, the probable outcome is another minority Tory government with an overall remain parliament.
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Corbyn doesnt need to win. Remain does.
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And its not up to him if we have a GE anyway. So unless he thinks he can get the EU to block the extension and blame everyone else for no deal, idk where we go from here.
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I dunno though, not saying it's come from Corbyn but Labour have just managed to have their cake and eat it, with Corbyn standing there making an offer to work with the government to set a responsible timeframe within which to pass the bill. And Johnson just stormed off. Unless this is all part of the grand Cummings plan, i'd say that this was a clanger by Johnson.
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Just a thought - have Labour played a blinder here? They had a good number of their leave MPs back the deal making it more likely they will retain their seats under pressure of Brexit voting, presumably in some key areas, and still managed to scupper it for Johnson. He misses his deadline, Labour go into an election with people seeing that they aren't trying to obstruct Brexit, and they have the potential to hold some vulnerable seats. As insane as I thought these rebel MPs were, if this was the plan from the get go then it's actually pretty solid. It concedes to Johnson the ability to say that his deal is the right one, but its also difficult for him to now argue that they're trying to stop him. They just want time to read it.
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But why. There must be some MPs who don't believe that otherwise they'd just vote down Johnson's deal directly. Who is meant to be fooled by this gambit?
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A customs union would be sold as a compromise because supposedly no one is pleased about it. The reality is it sacrifices all the good stuff about being in the EU without achieving the one theoretical good thing about leaving. So it's fucking mental, at least on my understanding.
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If it goes through, it goes through. Boris then has to win an election against what I can only imagine will be an incredibly energised remain electorate. If he can't, and Labour or a coalition take over, can much of the damage be scaled back?