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Seeing as we're talking about bad predictions...

And of course.

We took the black cats bar. Took the bastard good and proper

Hmmm…. Why not put that to a poll? 🤷🏻‍♂️ I know how much you like your stats. If the findings don’t suit you perhaps you could make up some arbitrary index of “likes” that would disprove the original data?

I remember Gemmill was CTs daughter’s favourite poster but that’s a family that watches Benidorm and sits on wooden pallets in their garden so draw your own conclusions there

This was my favourite poster.

Nah, all made on jest. For the record I actually like Gemmill, he WAS one of my favourite posters on this board. Not sure he feels the same about me mind

Well me and the missus are in Newcastle airport waiting to go to Cyprus. Going abroad when you're on the rock and roll? Got a 65" LCD TV as well? 🎵You know they talk so hip man They're twistin' my melon man (Caaaaall the Nash!!!!) 🎶

fuck's sake man. gemmill single handedly ensuring we finish 8th here.

Calm down MICRO COCK, I never said I was remotely concerned about those turds overtaking us. I just pointed out that it's still a slight possibility so better to keep schtum instead of blowing your own trumpet before the seasons concluded. Also, as I've now proved TWICE, I too can pull off caps lock posts with aplomb so you no longer have the monopoly on that stylistic choice.

Been looking all for this but I can't find it anywhere?

"was". Thank you for your loyalty.

Given there's 3 games left, they can still MATHEMATICALLY finish above us and we're STILL TO PLAY these knackers, I think your blowing your own dick a little early here. Impressive feat given your circumstances mind, so kudos for that but still. PS. I Gemmill'd up my statement with some ALL CAPS words (ooh I did it again!) just for you

So after nearly 150 years of English professional football we can now “accurately” say that the league table does actually lie? 😏

xPoints, xG etc will never be able to wholly accurately reflect the nuances of the game, the pressure, fatigue, makings of an injury that influence a forward as they prepare to take a shot. It's merely probability based modeling based on previous data for shots taken from similar areas with similar preceding action. No consideration for the quality or positioning of the keeper. Expected points is then an extrapolation based off xG. The fact that the reality is so much less predictable is why the game continues to be interesting. Villa have a quality GK (who's an unlikable dick) and a consistent team with forwards in form.

Nearly as funny as the name of the BBC journalist covering the story.

Morning all. 👋

I will HOCKLE on your purple hoodie.

I went to Heaton Stannington on Thursday night to watch them beat Birtley Town in the playoff semi final in front of an excellent crowd of nearly 1,300. Then I was at the final (again at home) yesterday as they beat surprise finalists West Auckland 3-0 with a set of well taken goals in front of over 2,000 fans. Which is a pretty crazy attendance for that level (level 9 / promotion to level 8 on the pyramid). Good angle of the first goal:

Stained glass, seagulls with vendettas, ear-flicking Chavs. This has got legs, Lynne.

Lynne, idea for new comedy show. It’s Never Sunny in Cullercoats.

Yes but it's fun to jump into every now. It's hard to argue against Messi tbh, even before the World Cup win I thought he'd done enough. What I think most reasonable people should agree on is that Ronaldo shouln't even feature in this conversation (CR7 of course, the Brazilian lad I have a lot of time for) A good excuse to watch this again: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RFJ3rYMP-WkXnxrhq8HOdVKw8mhQOTFo/view?usp=sharing

Completely unimportant, but I've never understood why people post in faux-swears. Fugging, fecking and the like, unless it's to mock the potato botherers. Fuck off.

Expected likes as in xL? Or in Gemmil’s case … xxxL.

And yet Man City continue without any sanction whatsoever. The arbitrary nature in which they've issued points deductions, partially rescinded them in the case of Everton and then added more is utterly ridiculous. Irrespective of who you support, no-one should be comfortable with this shit-show. Everton have been handed a total of 12 deducted points this season. Luton are currently 11 points behind them and in the relegation places, if it finishes like that you can see Luton taking them to court. Utterly ridiculous.

Hope you're having fun. 🙂

Someone wants HOCKLE on their paisley MONSTROSITY shirt.

Hubris, thy name is Gemmill

I think they’d call an election now if they thought it was that tight. They won’t because they don’t but it’ll just be the latest in their series of “if we keep repeating it, people might start to believe it”. Although the current lot are much shitter at that than Johnson and co were. I’m also not sure how it even works as a tactic. They’re so unpopular I can only see it motivating people who might have otherwise been complacent to vote for whoever has the best chance of winning against them in their area. It’s also another sign of how completely desperate them and their allies in the right wing press are

Apart from this being utter bollocks and about as detached from reality as it's possible to get, how these fuckers have the nerve after "chaos with Ed Miliband" is quite beyond me.

Fuckin ridiculous

Grown ups only. NOT FOR THE BOGANS!

"Ahm shewa if we wa playing Man United every week we'd be winning 4-0 anaarrl.'

"Don't you know I'm still shittin' better than I ever did? Lookin' like a blue pop drinker, wipin' off the skids And I'm not standin' after all this time Pickin' up the turds of my life without you on my mind"

Our dog went fuckin mental when it was on, started howling at the screen

xG and xPts are just a way to represent the quality of chances made and allowed. What they show is that if one team is high up the table despite allowing more good chances than they make, that team's position is unsustainable. You mention Villa, they can only play that risky style effectively when Martinez is fit. So if he gets injured midgame, the wise and informed observer would do well to cash out before the inevitable collapse xG doesn't tell the whole story, it can't. But it can give you insight without having to pore over hours of another team's games. The point of xG isn't to consider the quality of the player, his fatigue or anything like that. It's deliberately averaging out everyone from Beto to Batistuta. to give you a baseline from which you can judge a player (or a team). Only the bottom 3 and West Ham give up more chances, the former are because they're not very good, the latter because they choose to play a counter-attack style which by it's very nature invites possession and opportunities around the West Ham box. Man Utd are bottom half for chances created too (behind the likes of Brentford and Everton.) Those two stats point to a problem with their style, it says to me that they're overreliant on their goalkeeper making unlikely saves, and over reliant on their outfield players scoring from unlikely chances. Their game against Liverpool e.g. they scored twice from 0.81xG and yet only conceded twice from 4.43xGA. Run that game 1000 times and Liverpool comfortably win it 900 times. I can't be arsed to do it right now, but I'd like to see, for each of Man Utd's goals, what value was given to the chance. I'd be pretty confident that they're scoring when they've no right to.

That’s a complete myth tbh. The Brazilian league was arguably the best in the world at that time. Santos won back to back Copa Libertadores and Intercontinental Cups to help prove that. So he didn’t just excel in Brazil in he won four international trophies at club level. For context, Santos have won 8 in their history. He was the best player in the world when he was 17, scored fucking outrageous goals winning the World Cup at that age. 12 years later, he was past his best, after nearly a decade and a half of playing year round football and a ridiculous amount of games. But he was still the best player in the best international side ever. The NASL era was just a bit of retirement money tbh. Same for the likes of Cruyff and Beckenbauer. He could handle himself as well as Maradona could too.

Listen CHEESEDICK. Only I can pull of the caps lock posts, and it's indicative of your DISMAL outlook that you are remotely concerned about these overtaking us. You are now the only person on here with TWO apologies to make. Let's hope we don't end up with more.

Have a class time.

They've really turned on the Frat kid, haven't they? Fucking hell, why would any sane person want to own that club, manage them, or even play for them? Never knew you could get £1500 notes mind.

Full titled YP.

Hakewna Matata marra, Hawkewna Matata.

Ignoring the fact it’s a surprise to learn Elton John is a mackem, it’s fucking mental that they’re carrying on like they’re heading for promotion - the only thing that’s kept them away from relegation this season was Mowbray getting the squad to overperform early on in the season. It’s more likely they’ll be battling the drop tbh.